The College Football Playoff selection committee had almost gotten away free and clear, without having to make any truly tough decisions this season. Although USC won Friday night (preserving its sneaky playoff campaign), Saturday began playing out exactly how the committee needed in order to avoid controversy: Oklahoma manhandled TCU in the Big 12 title game, eliminating one of the biggest sources of chaos left on the schedule; then, Georgia and Clemson rolled to their respective conference championships, punching certain tickets to the playoff as well. Three teams were in, and the fourth would have been obvious if then undefeated Wisconsin could just take the Big Ten title over Ohio State.

But, in college football, the powers that be rarely get so lucky. When turf permitted, the Buckeyes handled the Badgers Saturday night, setting up a nightmare decision for the committee that was always going to leave somebody angry: Two-loss Big Ten champ Ohio State? Or one-loss Alabama, who spent Saturday watching the SEC championship from Tuscaloosa? (Or the Trojans, to whom our model perhaps surprisingly gave a 20 percent playoff probability on Sunday morning?) In the end, the committee picked Alabama — but the debate will rage on over the month to come.

On Alabama’s side were most of the major statistical yardsticks experts use to evaluate teams. That was true both in terms of backward-looking accomplishments — the Tide rank fourth in Strength Of Record, a measure of how impressive a team’s record was given its schedule (OSU ranks seventh) — and forward-looking talent — ’Bama is the nation’s top team according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, which is designed to predict future outcomes (OSU isn’t an especially close second). The Crimson Tide also dominated their games more thoroughly than the Buckeyes, and came out slightly ahead in FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings, a rolling assessment of each team’s performance over time. The overall, season-long résumé metrics clearly favored Alabama.

However, Ohio State could claim something Alabama couldn’t: A conference championship. (Specifically, in a conference various power ratings consider either the toughest or second-toughest in the country.) That is supposed to matter a lot: According to the selection committee’s guidelines, they “will be instructed to place emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule, and head-to-head competition when comparing teams with similar record and pedigree.” Only once in playoff history — ironically, when OSU made the playoff under similar circumstances last season — had the committee ever slotted in a team that didn’t win its conference (or even play for its conference crown). Such titles are perceived to be so crucial that conferences have specifically added championship games in an attempt to boost their teams’ playoff chances.

But the selection committee proved Sunday that conference titles aren’t everything. Defying efforts to reduce playoff qualification to a series of boxes that teams can check off, they appear to have taken a more holistic view of the season in total. Although there were cases to be made for both the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide, Alabama is generally considered the best team in the country by oddsmakers, and it would probably have been wrong to exclude them from the playoff. It’s unfortunate that they had to get in at the expense of a worthy Buckeyes squad, but until the College Football Playoff field is expanded to eight teams, two-loss major-conference teams are usually at risk of being left out of the proceedings.

And now that the playoff is set, we should be in for a highly entertaining college football final four. We’ll get to see the nation’s best offense (Oklahoma) face a Georgia team that excels at everything, and a clash of two top defenses in a rematch of last year’s Clemson-Alabama championship game. Of course, we’ll have to slog through the annual Army-Navy matchup, the formality of Baker Mayfield’s Heisman victory and a bunch of lesser bowls to get there — but it should all be worth the nearly month-long wait.

Friday was really bad for the Republican Party in that President Trump’s one-time national security adviser Michael Flynn pled guilty to lying to the FBI and there are indications that he might testify to politically damaging and possibly illegal actions by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and maybe even the president himself. But Friday (and early Saturday) was really great for Republicans in that the party took a huge step towards a goal it had long before Trump was even running for president: a huge cut in corporate tax rates that GOP leaders say will encourage American companies to increase their current workers’ pay and hire more employees. (Many economics experts strongly dispute these claims.)

The Senate voted 51-49 to pass its version of the tax bill. That does not guarantee that the provision will become law. The policies the GOP are trying to pass are unpopular with the public and have the potential to substantially increase the national deficit. The House and Senate versions, moreover, have some major differences, and getting all of the hard-to-please members and factions in each chamber (think Maine’s Susan Collins, Arizona’s John McCain and the House Freedom Caucus) all on board for the same bill won’t be simple.

But this tax bill has advanced much further than the Obamacare repeal, which stalled in the Senate, in a much shorter time period. It has a good chance of becoming law, perhaps even before Christmas. If it does, it’ll have big implications — both in terms of policy and politics.

1. Both the House and Senate versions of this legislation radically overhaul America’s tax system, mostly notably in cutting corporate taxes from 35 to 20 percent, while getting rid of many existing tax deductions in order to make up for the lost revenue. They also substantially cut taxes on certain kinds of businesses that do not organize themselves as corporations. And the bills cut some taxes that disproportionately hit wealthy people. These changes will benefit wealthy business owners like Trump.

In short, this is a full-on embrace of trickle-down economics, premised on the idea that corporations and businesses taking in more money will pass that down to workers. Once enacted, these policies will likely be difficult for Democrats to undo — much like Republicans are having a hard time rolling back the increased Medicaid spending and protections for pre-existing conditions that were key features of Obamacare. It’s just hard to imagine Democrats will find it easy to raise the corporate rate substantially in the future. Companies are likely to suggest any hike in that rate will force them to layoff employees.

2. The Senate version repeals Obamacare’s individual mandate. I expect the House to agree to include the mandate repeal, so it’s likely to be included in whatever law Trump would potentially sign. In other words, this legislation could become part of a series of moves made by Trump’s executive branch that some say amount to a “synthetic repeal” of the Affordable Care Act, even if Republicans couldn’t find the votes to kill that entire law.

3. If ultimately passed by both chambers and signed by Trump, the tax bill gives the president and congressional Republicans their first big legislative win since the start of Trump’s tenure. What does that mean politically? Well, here’s one thing it doesn’t necessarily mean: more congressional seats for Republicans. Since this bill is so unpopular, it’s hard to see this legislation helping boost the congressional Republicans ahead of the 2018 midterm elections — and it may hurt them.

It’s also not clear if this bill’s passage means congressional Republicans will rally around Trump — in general or on the Russia investigation specifically. Sure, Republicans could decide that the success of the tax bill shows that Trump is an effective governing partner, even if he behaves erratically. But Republicans on Capitol Hill could also go in the opposite direction, deciding that a tax overhaul is probably the only big bill that will pass during Trump’s presidency. Under that theory, they would begin to more forcefully distance themselves from him, perhaps even clearing the path for Trump to be impeached and removed from office if the investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller shows serious misconduct by the president.

The safest bet, in terms of what the passage of the tax bill tells us about the future workings of Trump and Congress, is perhaps “maybe not that much.” Congressional Republicans are likely to continue to flail both legislatively and in terms of how they deal with an unpredictable president, defending Trump at times, attacking him at others.

But if nothing else, the enactment of the tax bill would shift Trump from a do-nothing president who can’t implement an agenda even with his party in control of both houses of Congress to the president who signed the most extensive tax overhaul in three decades. Trump will likely brag about this bill as a huge accomplishment — a big league one, he might say. He will demand that the “fake news” ” cover the bill’s passage intensely, and that coverage will never be enough for him. Trump spoke often as a candidate about “winning,” and now, after a first year full of political and policy setbacks, he is closer to a huge win as president.

Before the World Cup draw on Friday, there was reason to suspect that Russia would get off easy. As the host country, it were slotted into Pot 1, which made it impossible for them to be grouped with a powerhouse like Brazil or Germany. But it looks like the Russians also had a little luck on their side. In fact, by one metric, Russia’s Group A is the weakest group in modern World Cup history.

Based on Elo ratings — a measure of a team’s quality that takes into account factors such margin of victory, game importance and game location — Russia’s group with Uruguay, Egypt and Saudi Arabia has an average rating of 1720, which is 98 points worse than the average of all World Cup teams. That’s the largest gap between group strength and the World Cup average for any group in the World Cup since the expansion to the modern format in 1986.With group play and a 16-team knockout tournament; 24 teams from 1986 to 1994 and then 32 from 1998 onward.

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The Russians avoided a whammy each time a pingpong ball was selected. After Uruguay joined them as the group’s Pot 2 team — Uruguay is middle of the pack, with an 1849 Elo rating — things really started going Russia’s way. Egypt, which has the second-weakest Elo of any team in Pot 3, was drawn, and the group was rounded out with Saudi Arabia, which has the lowest Elo in the field of 32. Compared with all of the potential ways Russia’s draw could have played out, its group ended up being among the easiest 2.2 percent of all possible combinations, according to the average Elo rating of its members.

(Of course, this is even better news for Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, because they get to face Russia — the worst Pot 1 team by a wide margin — in addition to one another.)

While Group A is the easiest when compared to the 2018 World Cup field, it actually doesn’t hold the claim for lowest raw score among all groups since 1986. That distinction belongs to Group F in 2010, which featured the defending champion Italy, Slovakia, Paraguay and New Zealand. No team from this group would make it past the quarterfinals.

That said, Russia should stroll into the knockout stage. Indeed, FiveThirtyEight is giving Russia a 74 percent chance of advancing that far, with Uruguay followed closely behind with a 72 percent chance of reaching the knockouts.

Using Elo averages, no group in this next World Cup cracks the top 10 most difficult since 1986, but all are obviously tougher than Group A. Here’s a look at which teams should advance from each:

Group B is projected to be the strongest in the tournament, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index, and will be headlined by an early game between old rivals Portugal and Spain, which will face off for just the second time at a World Cup. The Iberian Peninsula neighbors met for the first time in 2010, when the Spaniards won 1-0 on their way to the country’s first ever World Cup victory. And the duo could meet again on the grandest stage of them all: They have the highest combined chance of making the final of any two teams in the same group.

Powerhouse France, coming off a loss in the finals of the 2016 European Championship to Portugal, will be looking to move through and claim its second ever World Cup trophy. Peru owns a 47 percent chance to make its second-ever knockout stage appearance and first since being defeated by Pelé’s Brazil in Mexico in 1970.

After scraping through the qualifying stages, Argentina is the clear favorite in Group D, with a 74 percent chance of advancing. But all eyes will be on Iceland, which famously beat England in the 2016 Euros on their way to the quarterfinals, to see if the country of just 330,000 people can go on another magical run. And they may be ready to shock the world again: Iceland’s chance of advancing to the knockout stage is just 33 percent, which will likely become even smaller after they face the Argentines in its first game.

After its heartbreaking 7-1 defeat by Germany in front of its home fans in the 2014 World Cup semifinals, Brazil will be out for revenge in Russia. The way the tournament’s bracket is set up, Brazil and Germany could be on a collision course to meet in the final if they both win their respective groups. As it stands, Brazil and Germany have the highest and third-highest chances of making the final in 2018.

Group F is in the mix for being this tournament’s “Group of Death” as reigning champions Germany will be joined by Mexico and Sweden. The Mexicans’ and Swedes’ qualifying chances are separated by just 3 percentage points, which is the smallest difference of any teams drawn out of Pots 2 and 3 in the same group. Rounding out the group is South Korea, which famously made it all the way to the semifinals in 2002, when they co-hosted the tournament, and currently have the third-worst SPI rating of any team traveling to Russia. The prize for second place in Group F? A possible date with Brazil in the Round of 16. Good luck.

Belgium and England will be extremely pleased with how the draw turned out for them, as they’re combined chances of making it out of the group stages are the highest of any two teams in the same group. What’s more, they don’t play each other until the final round of group-stage matches, so depending on how they fare against Tunisia and Panama, the Belgians and English could have already qualified by the time they meet.

The Polish could be the most likely team from Pot 1 to fail to qualify for the knockout stage, as they currently have the second-lowest SPI rating of any team from Pot 1. They’ll be joined by Colombia and Japan, whose qualifying chances are split by just 2 percentage points. This means that Group H is the only group that has three teams with at least a 49 percent chance of making it out of the group stage. With the Colombians ranked the 9th-best team in the tournament and the Japanese being the highest-ranked team of any from Pot 4, Poland faces one of the toughest tests of teams from Pot 1.

–Neil Paine and Dean Strachan contributed research.

After 14 weeks of anticipation, we’ve made it: College football’s championship weekend is finally upon us. Come Sunday at noon, the playoff selection committee will reveal its picks for the Final Four — who still has national championship life, and who’s left out in the cold. But we don’t really have to wait until then for clues about which teams will be booking flights for Pasadena and New Orleans on New Year’s Day. Based on what happens in this week’s games and a little tinkering with our college football predictions, we can make an educated guess about what the committee’s choices will be — though it has been known to throw us a curveball every now and then. Here’s what our model says to watch for over the weekend:

SEC Championship: Auburn vs. Georgia

Saturday, 4 p.m. ET on CBS

The winner of this game is practically guaranteed to make the playoff. For Auburn — which the FiveThirtyEight model has favored here with a 54 percent chance of victory — that would mean capping off one of the most remarkable stretch runs in college football history. After losing to LSU on Oct. 14, Auburn had a 5-2 record and was staring at a mere 4 percent playoff probability. But a string of wins that includes beating two No. 1-ranked teams (at game time) has the Tigers set up for a potential CFP clincher. And on the UGA side of things, the Dawgs can get sweet revenge for their 40-17 loss on the Plains in November, stamping a playoff ticket for the first time in program history.

Neither team has much margin for error if it loses, however. We give Georgia a 1-in-905 chance of being picked for the playoff without an SEC title, and while Auburn’s chances are slightly better with a loss (9 percent), the Tigers would need a convoluted sequence of events that includes TCU upsetting Oklahoma just to have any glimmer of hope from the committee. And as far as outside rooting interests go, the outcome here has surprisingly little effect on the rest of the CFP picture. (Even Alabama, sitting at home twiddling its thumbs, doesn’t see its chances budge much either way.) At most, USC needs an Auburn win as part of a very specific scheme that can push its chances with the committee up to a coin flip (more on that later).

Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin vs. Ohio State

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on FOX

Just as the SEC title game is basically do-or-die for the two teams involved, this contest is a simple binary for Wisconsin: Win, and clinch a semifinal berth; lose, and see those chances fall to basically nothing. Fair or not, a one-loss Wisconsin team would not compare favorably with the other playoff contenders, given its weak strength of schedule. For the Buckeyes, however, things aren’t quite that simple. Yes, they can boost their chances with a victory — which our model gives a 56 percent chance of happening — but OSU is far from a lock even if it wins. The Buckeyes will also need TCU to do them a big favor by upsetting Oklahoma — further boosting OSU’s chances to 75 percent — and hope for the committee to look favorably upon their impressive victories (and ignore their 55-24 loss to Iowa).

Beyond the Big Ten, Alabama has the big rooting interest here. Since they don’t control their own destiny, the one-loss Crimson Tide need favorable contrasts in the eyes of the committee — and that means setting up a comparison against two-loss Ohio State, not undefeated Wisconsin. Bama’s playoff chances would be about 18 percentage points higher with a win by the Buckeyes than a win by the Badgers. And USC also requires an Ohio State victory here, as another component of its long-shot playoff bid.

Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma vs. TCU

Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET on FOX

Much like Wisconsin and both SEC title contestants, Oklahoma can basically assure itself of a playoff berth with a victory over TCU here. With a one-loss résumé accentuated by the most dominating offense in the nation (plus another win over a top-15 team if they do beat the Frogs), the Sooners can also help vindicate the Big 12’s decision to revive its conference championship game this year. But that decision could very well backfire on the conference, too, and leave it without a playoff team yet again if TCU pulls off the upset. We give the Sooners a 63 percent chance of winning and making all of this moot; there’s even an unlikely backdoor route for OU if it loses that involves Ohio State winning the Big Ten. But the most straightforward path for Oklahoma (and the Big 12) is a Sooner victory.

For TCU’s part, its playoff hopes are remote (if not nonexistent) and wouldn’t crack 20 percent even if it does upset the Sooners. According to the swing in our model’s playoff chances, Alabama actually has the second-greatest stake in the Big 12 Championship of any team in the country, including the Frogs. Bama would see its CFP chances swell from 30 percent to 48 percent if TCU beats Oklahoma, since the one-loss Tide are directly competing with the Sooners for a playoff spot. (In fact, Alabama fans should be watching this matchup far more intently than they will the SEC title game.) Likewise, Ohio State has a big stake in TCU winning, as does USC and several other contenders. In terms of outside rooting interests, this Big 12 title game is easily the most important game of the weekend.

ACC Championship: Clemson vs. Miami

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on ABC

The ACC Championship is also very close to an NCAA quarterfinal. Certainly the committee is guaranteed to take Clemson (which placed No. 1 in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings) if the Tigers beat Miami for the conference crown — which our model assigns a 71 percent probability of happening. If the Canes win, our model thinks there’s roughly an 11 percent chance that they’d somehow be on the outs — think a universe in which Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Georgia all win and the committee prefers Alabama’s résumé to Miami’s — but that’s unlikely. (Miami is only one slot behind Alabama in strength of record before a hypothetical win over Clemson.)

Then again, our model also says the Tigers would have about a 19 percent chance of making the playoff even if they don’t beat Miami, a scenario that most likely involves TCU and Ohio State victories muddying the water for the committee. And several other teams across the country would benefit from Clemson winning, most notably USC (in Step 5 of the Trojans’ improbable CFP charge).

Pac-12 Championship: Southern California vs. Stanford

Friday, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN

With Stanford’s College Football Playoff chances slim at best — they’ll be only 6 percent even if the Cardinal wins the Pac-12 — the only real playoff implication for this game involves a guerilla playoff push by a USC team that hasn’t ranked in the AP top 10 since September. The Trojans seemed dead in the water after being crushed by Notre Dame six weeks ago, but they’ve strung together just enough victories to stay on the periphery of the playoff conversation. Now, their best-case playoff scenario depends on the following outcomes, with games listed in order of importance:

• USC beats Stanford (45 percent probability)
• TCU beats Oklahoma (37 percent)
• Ohio State beats Wisconsin (56 percent)
• Auburn beats Georgia (54 percent)
• Clemson beats Miami (71 percent)
• Memphis beats UCF (36 percent)

If all of that happens, the Trojans’ playoff chances would rise to 51 percent; the playoff field would most likely be Auburn, Clemson, Ohio State and whichever team the committee prefers between USC, Alabama and TCU. It’s not an especially likely set of circumstances — but then again, nothing about this Trojan resurgence has been likely.

The only other game with potential playoff implications is the AAC Championship Game between Central Florida, which is making a bid for a perfect season, and Memphis. Sadly, because of UCF’s schedule strength, its chances of making the playoff are remote. But the combination of outcomes that gives the Knights the highest playoff probability (granted, still a measly 0.19 percent) involves wins by UCF, Clemson, Ohio State, TCU and Stanford. So, to all the fans of stale memes down in Orlando: Yes, I’m telling you there’s a chance.

But most likely, the playoff will contain the SEC winner, the ACC winner, plus Wisconsin and Oklahoma — if they win — or Ohio State and/or Alabama (or maybe TCU or USC if the committee’s feeling really crazy) should the Badgers and/or Sooners fall. It’s an oddly tidy set of contingencies for a championship weekend that some are calling the best ever. But at the same time, I have a feeling this season isn’t quite out of surprises yet.

Check out our latest college football predictions.