2017-18 NBA Predictions

UPDATED SEP. 14, 2017 AT 1:50 PM

2017-18 NBA PredictionsBased on “CARM-Elo,” a mix of team Elo ratings and our CARMELO player projections. Updated after every game.

More NBA:  CARMELO projections   Every team’s Elo history

StandingsGames

AVG. SIMULATED SEASON PLAYOFF CHANCES
ELO CARM-ELO 1-WEEK CHANGE TEAM CONFERENCE RECORD POINT DIFF/G MAKE PLAYOFFS TOP SEED WIN TITLE
1707 1741 -88 Warriors1-2 West 61-21 +8.1 >99% 53% 30%
1618 1641 -16 Cavaliers2-1 East 56-26 +6.3 98% 47% 14%
1534 1612 +48 Timberwolves2-0 West 52-30 +4.8 88% 10% 6%
1530 1608 +9 Thunder1-0 West 51-31 +4.1 83% 8% 6%
1621 1605 +24 Clippers1-0 West 50-32 +4.3 83% 7% 5%
1597 1596 +43 Rockets2-1 West 50-32 +4.3 82% 7% 5%
1526 1593 -10 Raptors1-1 East 50-32 +3.6 93% 18% 7%
1586 1591 -26 Spurs0-1 West 48-34 +2.8 76% 5% 4%
1560 1582 -16 Jazz1-1 West 49-33 +2.7 78% 5% 5%
1550 1577 +11 Trail Blazers1-1 West 47-35 +2.7 72% 4% 3%
1507 1548 +12 Bulls1-0 East 47-35 +2.0 84% 11% 3%
1552 1539 +81 Hawks2-0 East 46-36 +2.5 85% 10% 3%
1467 1509 +44 Magic2-1 East 42-40 +1.2 72% 4% 2%
1475 1503 +31 Mavericks1-2 West 39-43 -0.3 36% <1% <1%
1449 1494 -40 Hornets1-1 East 41-41 -0.4 66% 3% 1%
1578 1490 +21 Wizards2-0 East 40-42 +0.2 63% 3% <1%
1524 1487 +37 Grizzlies2-0 West 39-43 -0.5 36% <1% <1%
1531 1480 -6 Nuggets0-1 West 39-43 -0.8 35% <1% <1%
1454 1471 -91 Celtics0-3 East 37-45 -2.6 48% <1% <1%
1533 1450 +43 Bucks1-1 East 37-45 -1.4 46% 1% <1%
1426 1448 -30 Pistons0-2 East 36-46 -2.2 41% <1% <1%
1395 1436 -9 Knicks0-1 East 34-48 -2.9 35% <1% <1%
1417 1434 -15 Kings1-1 West 33-49 -3.9 14% <1% <1%
1461 1428 -24 Pelicans0-2 West 31-51 -4.2 10% <1% <1%
1465 1417 -31 Pacers0-1 East 32-50 -3.7 25% <1% <1%
1511 1398 -18 Heat0-1 East 31-51 -4.4 21% <1% <1%
1374 1396 -14 Suns1-1 West 29-53 -4.6 6% <1% <1%
1385 1382 +3 76ers1-2 East 29-53 -4.9 16% <1% <1%
1391 1353 +3 Lakers1-1 West 26-56 -6.9 2% <1% <1%
1421 1334 +24 Nets1-0 East 25-57 -6.2 6% <1% <1%

Forecast fromTodaySept. 14 (preseason)

How this works: This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts for team fatigue, travel distance to games, and home courts with higher altitudes. Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent, while our CARMELO projections estimate a player’s future performance based on the trajectory of other, similar NBA players. Our CARM-Elo ratings, which power the forecast model, blend these two metrics to measure a team’s quality based on both its game results and its roster. Full methodology »

By Jay Boice, Ella Koeze and Nate Silver. Additional contributions from Neil Paine. Illustration by Elias Stein.

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