With catastrophic flooding in Texas, President Trump is facing the biggest domestic crisis of his presidency so far. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast talks about the political challenges that natural disasters can pose to local officials, governors and presidents.

Plus, as Trump hovers around his all-time lowest job approval rating, Nate Silver discusses the kinds of events that have the most bearing on the president’s popularity. Harry Enten also explores the world of fake and shoddy polling.

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The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Monday evenings, with occasional special episodes throughout the week. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.